Turning Point USA straw poll crowns Vice President JD Vance as 2028 favorite as AmericaFest attendees voice security and economic fears
Vice President JD Vance dominated Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest straw poll in Phoenix, securing roughly 84% support from attendees, an early sign of conservative enthusiasm ahead of 2028 while outlets note the poll’s non-scientific, attendee-limited nature.
- Straw poll result: Vance reported at about 84% of attendee support in multiple accounts, with minor discrepancies across sources.
- Other candidates: Single-digit showings for others — Ron DeSantis reported variably (including a 7.6% figure); Vivek Ramaswamy reported near 5.8%.
- Limits: Coverage stresses this was a non-scientific straw poll of conference attendees, not a representative GOP electorate sample.
- Threats and priorities: Conference materials attributed detailed respondent counts to concerns such as “radical Islam,” migration and the economy, but those totals could not be independently verified.
Main coverage and context
Straw poll results
Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest straw poll, held Dec. 18–21, 2025, in Phoenix, showed Vice President JD Vance as the overwhelming attendee favorite for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, with reported support of roughly 84%. (Sources: evrimagaci.org; CBSAustin).
Vote breakdown and other contenders
Other contenders registered only single-digit support in the straw poll. Reported figures for Ron DeSantis vary across accounts — some list him at 7.6% while others show lower numbers — and Vivek Ramaswamy was reported at about 5.8% in several reports. (Sources: evrimagaci.org; CBSAustin; IdahoNews).
Vance’s showing and the limits of straw-poll data
AmericaFest is a high-profile conference for conservative activists and young voters; the group’s straw poll is an early barometer of grassroots enthusiasm but not a scientific poll with randomized sampling. Multiple local outlets described the poll as a measure of attendee preference rather than a definitive statement of the party’s nationwide direction. (See coverage from CBSAustin; IdahoNews).
Note: past straw-poll winners have not always translated activist momentum into party-wide dominance; rural and swing voters weigh national headlines against local concerns.
Numbers and reporting differences
Coverage shows minor differences in reported figures: Turning Point’s materials put Vance at about 84.2%, while an industry producer posted an 82.6% figure on social media and compared it to Donald Trump’s 2024 showing at the same event two years prior. Local affiliates noted small discrepancies across sources. (Sources: evrimagaci.org; YouTube video; KFOXTV).
Other polling and context
Broader polling in December 2025 also showed Vance performing strongly in hypothetical GOP primary matchups; for example, AtlasIntel’s December polling placed him near 47% in a hypothetical primary — though that survey differs in methodology and sample from Turning Point’s event polling. (Context: evrimagaci.org).
Turning Point leaders and endorsements
Turning Point USA leadership was visible at AmericaFest. Erika Kirk, identified in coverage as CEO of Turning Point USA and widow of Charlie Kirk, publicly endorsed Vance and pledged organizational resources should he run in 2028. Vance’s office framed the response as appreciation while underscoring ongoing focus on the 2026 midterms and work with the current administration; he has not declared a 2028 campaign. (Source: evrimagaci.org; CBSAustin).
Threat priorities reported at the conference: unverified figures
Conference materials (as provided to reporters) listed specific respondent counts for perceived top threats — for example: 31,008 naming “radical Islam,” 30,387 citing “socialism and Marxism,” 28,223 saying “mass migration,” and 27,315 choosing “the economy and affordability.” These precise figures do not appear in independent coverage or Turning Point’s published materials available in news searches; they are therefore presented here as claimed totals requiring confirmation from Turning Point USA or conference organizers. (Source: evrimagaci.org).
Local and national media coverage
Regional affiliates and independent outlets relayed the basic straw-poll results and noted Turning Point’s efforts to mobilize young conservative voters, including initiatives aimed at women. Coverage placed the group’s activism and endorsements in the broader context of early GOP maneuvering ahead of 2028. (Sources: evrimagaci.org; FloridaPolitics).
Implications for United States of America
Economic impact: A strong Turning Point charge behind Vance could sharpen campaign messaging on trade, manufacturing, taxes and affordability. For rural communities, conservative youth mobilization may translate into more attention and resources for local economic concerns if national candidates seek turnout in small-town counties. However, policy outcomes depend largely on Congress and state governments.
Political consequences: For rural moderate conservatives, the AmericaFest results show where activist energy may flow in the GOP primary if attendees influence activists and donors. Turning Point’s endorsement power could shape early nominating contests via organizing, turnout efforts and media framing — but broader Republican voters across diverse states will ultimately decide the nominee.
Social and cultural effects: The reported emphasis on perceived threats such as “radical Islam,” socialism and mass migration — whether verified or not — highlights issues energizing a segment of conservative activists and may shape campaign rhetoric and policy proposals affecting immigration enforcement, national security and education. Turning Point’s focus on cultural issues underscores continued blending of cultural and economic priorities in GOP debates.
Practical application: Voters should treat straw-poll results as an early indicator of activist sentiment, not a forecast of electoral outcomes. Local party organizations, county committees and state GOP groups will watch these early signs to decide resource allocation; rural voters can use such signals to anticipate which issues candidates will emphasize on the trail.
Sourcing and verification
This report relies on coverage of the Turning Point USA AmericaFest straw poll from multiple local and regional outlets and Turning Point reporting. Key sources include coverage and summaries at Times Media Service partner and local outlets: evrimagaci.org; CBSAustin; IdahoNews; KFOXTV. Video and social posts also documented the event: YouTube video. Additional context on candidate polling and Florida-related coverage is available at FloridaPolitics.
Because the AmericaFest straw poll was a non-scientific event poll, readers should view it as an early gauge of activist sentiment at Turning Point USA rather than a prediction of the 2028 GOP primary outcome. For verified totals on conference questions about national threats, Turning Point USA or conference organizers would need to publish detailed results.
