Leaving California cuts housing costs by about $672 a month and boosts homeownership, study finds
A California Policy Lab analysis finds Californians who move out of state save about $672 a month on housing and become 48% more likely to own a home within seven years, driven by substantially lower rents and median home prices.
Key takeaways
- Average housing savings: Movers out of California saved about $672 per month on housing (rent/mortgage, utilities, taxes, insurance), per a Los Angeles Times summary of the California Policy Lab analysis.
- Renters benefited most: Renters saw rents fall roughly 30%, about $631 per month, according to the Los Angeles Times.
- Homeownership gains: Median home prices in destination neighborhoods were about $396,000 lower, and leaving California is associated with an 11 percentage-point (48%) increase in homeownership over seven years.
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What the California Policy Lab tracked
The California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley used anonymous panel data that follows the same households from 2016 through 2025. This longitudinal approach let researchers compare pre- and post-move locations and compute changes in monthly housing costs and ownership rates. The analysis includes rent or mortgage payments, utilities, property taxes and insurance. The results are summarized in a Los Angeles Times report summarizing the lab’s work.
Housing cost reductions and who benefits
Biggest savings for renters: Renters who left California saw average rents fall by about 30%, roughly $631 per month. Homebuyers also gained: median home prices in destination neighborhoods were about $396,000 lower—nearly half the price of the California neighborhoods movers left.
Why it matters: Research director Evan White told the Los Angeles Times and in coverage cited by Fox Business that monthly savings near $700 are often decisive—lower housing costs can outweigh modest income drops after moving and open a clearer path to homeownership.
Homeownership gains after moving
In destination neighborhoods, 60% of movers own homes versus 53% in their former California neighborhoods. Over seven years, leaving California is associated with an 11 percentage-point increase in homeownership—about a 48% rise relative to the baseline. By contrast, movers to California saw a smaller 6 percentage-point (27%) gain over the same period, underscoring how affordability shapes ownership chances.
“Leaving California appears tied directly to higher ownership rates, driven largely by much lower home prices and rents in many destination communities.”
Migration patterns and destinations
From 2016 to 2025, Nevada had the largest per-capita net inflow from California—about 81 net arrivals per 10,000 annually. Idaho, Oregon and Arizona followed at 64, 37, and 36 per 10,000, respectively. States commonly noted for heavy in-migration overall—Texas, Tennessee and Florida—received far fewer Californians per capita, netting 11, 13 and 4 per 10,000 annually. These patterns reflect geographic and affordability differences that attracted former Californians over the period.
Inside California: who is leaving and where
The study finds an increasing share of leavers come from relatively affluent neighborhoods—on average about 8.7% wealthier than pre-pandemic leavers. Tech workers in the Bay Area, enabled by remote work, have been especially likely to relocate to more affordable regions. Departures were uneven across counties; for example, Sacramento County showed a notable net loss: about 71,100 net outflow between 2016 and 2025 (269,600 left while 198,500 moved in), as noted in a data recap on Sacramento County net migration.
Why movers often do better financially
Two forces explain the financial gains for many movers:
- Price and supply differences: Much lower median home prices and rents in destination neighborhoods make homeownership attainable at lower incomes.
- Net cash-flow increases: Some movers accept modestly lower wages but reduce housing costs enough that monthly savings and increased disposable income remain positive.
Implications for United States
Economic: Buying power and housing demand shift to receiving regions. New homeowners with lower housing burdens can boost local retail, construction jobs and property tax revenue—benefits especially visible in Nevada, Idaho, Oregon and Arizona.
Political: Migration alters tax bases and voting pools. Higher-income Californians moving out may bring different priorities on taxes, schools and development, while California faces pressure to reevaluate housing policy and revenue if out-migration persists.
Social: Increased homeownership in receiving areas can strengthen community stability and school enrollment but may also strain services, roads and hospitals without coordinated planning.
Practical applications
Local leaders in receiving areas can prepare by updating zoning and permitting, investing in infrastructure, and training workers for housing-related construction and services. Counties expecting newcomers should plan for school capacity, law enforcement and health care. For individuals, the study is a clear data point: moving out-of-state can sharply cut housing costs and make buying a home more attainable in a relatively short time.
