Nearly 45% of California Teachers Say They’ll Retire in Next Decade, Raising Alarms for Schools and Rural Districts
Nearly 45% of California’s public school teachers say they plan to retire within the next decade — a rate well above the national average — driven by financial pressures and declining morale, raising fresh alarms for districts statewide.
- About 45% is the midpoint estimate from Education Week’s 2026 State of Teaching report (summary), based on thousands of teacher responses.
- Financial strain is central: CTA data show 45% cite finances as a factor and 84% say salaries lag cost of living (California Teachers Association press release).
- Regional risk is uneven: rural counties and shortage subjects (math, science, special education) face higher turnover risk per prior IES/Wested projections.
What the new survey shows
Education Week’s State of Teaching report synthesizes responses from thousands of K–12 teachers and places California’s retirement intent between 40% and 49%, with a midpoint figure of roughly 45%. The report’s director, Holly Kurtz of the Education Week Research Center (summary), attributes part of the elevated rate to California’s older teacher workforce (average age 45.5 vs. U.S. average 42.9).
“Teacher morale is at, by some measures, the lowest point in recent memory,” Holly Kurtz told EdSource, noting that nearly half of U.S. teachers say they expect at some point to work outside education — a trend that shows up in California even where morale is slightly better on average.
Financial pressures and the decision to quit
Money is a persistent theme across surveys. The California Teachers Association survey of nearly 2,000 TK–12 educators reported:
- 40% are considering leaving education.
- 45% cite financial issues as a factor in that consideration.
- 54% know colleagues who left because of financial strain.
- 84% say salaries do not keep pace with cost of living; 81% cannot afford to live near the schools where they teach.
Districts report recruitment and retention struggles, amplified by recent labor actions (for example, the multi-day San Francisco strike). The broader national picture — with 36% of teachers nationally saying they expect to retire in the next decade — underscores that California is an outlier in scale, not in kind (Education Week summary).
How today’s estimates compare with older projections
Earlier forecasts painted a far smaller statewide retirement wave. A 2014 Regional Educational Laboratory West study projected roughly 22–26% statewide retirement for the 2014–24 cohort, with wide county variation (under 20% in some areas, over 60% in others). Those earlier projections preceded the recent economic and morale shifts documented in surveys — an important caveat when comparing methods and time periods (IES/Wested report, Wested overview).
What this could mean for school budgets and pensions
There is no direct evidence tying the new retirement-intent numbers to immediate stress on the California State Teachers’ Retirement System, but the hypothetical impacts are clear. CalSTRS reported a funded status of 76.7% as of June 2024 and reported assets of $396.7 billion in January 2026. CalSTRS pages and budget documents provide the official figures (CalSTRS investment page, CalSTRS funded-status report, CalSTRS budget detail).
A concentrated wave of retirements could shift contribution needs over time, increase substitute and hiring costs for districts, and strain local budgets — especially in counties where retirements cluster or in subjects with chronic shortages.
Regional differences in turnover risk
Research shows retirement and turnover vary sharply by county and subject area. Rural and less-populated counties historically see higher retirement rates for some cohorts, while essential shortage subjects such as math, science, and special education may experience outsized losses. That uneven pattern means some rural districts could be hit much harder than urban counterparts (IES/Wested report).
Policy levers and district responses
Districts and state leaders employ a range of strategies to recruit and retain educators, including:
- Recruiting incentives, signing bonuses and retention pay;
- Housing supports and partnerships to improve affordability;
- Alternative-certification pipelines and targeted recruitment for shortage subjects;
- Collective bargaining and local contract settlements — such as the San Francisco tentative agreement after a four-day strike — which show negotiated solutions can be reached but vary widely by district.
Implications for the United States
Economic: A large wave of retirements in California would raise demand for new hires, substitutes and alternative-certification programs, increasing hiring costs and straining district budgets and state funding formulas.
Political: Teacher shortages and pay pressures are likely to surface as campaign issues in local and statewide races, with voters pressing for pragmatic solutions to protect classroom instruction.
Social and cultural: Rural communities may face larger class sizes, fewer course offerings and the loss of trusted educators who also serve as community leaders; in some areas families may consider transfers or homeschooling.
Practical applications for districts and families
Districts should map risk by school and subject, prioritize targeted retention pay, housing supports and recruitment where needed, and explore alternative-certification pipelines. Parents and community leaders can advocate for local incentives — such as affordable housing partnerships or volunteer programs — that reduce non-teaching workloads and help retain teachers.
Sources and further reading
- Education Week State of Teaching report coverage (summary)
- California Teachers Association press release
- IES study on California teacher retirements
- Wested: California teacher retirements overview
- CalSTRS investment page
- CalSTRS funded-status report
- CalSTRS budget detail
Reporting draws on Education Week’s 2026 State of Teaching findings and related surveys and government reports. The California Department of Education did not respond to requests for comment on the survey.
