NEW ORLEANS, July 21 (DC Times Online) — Texas should keep an eye on Tropical Storm Bertha this week, but the forecast is still unsettled. Official guidance says the storm formed in the northeastern Gulf on Monday evening, and while its center is expected to move toward the central Gulf Coast, the track could still shift enough to change whether Texas gets little direct impact or a stretch of heavy rain, gusty winds and rough surf.
How close is Bertha to Texas?
The latest forecast guidance says Bertha is most likely to move toward southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi by Wednesday. From there, it could weaken into a tropical depression by late week and reach the Upper Texas Coast, or it could fade over Louisiana before getting that far west. AccuWeather said a farther-south track could push heavy rain, gusty winds and potentially damaging surf into Texas, including central Texas.
For now, the clearest official alerts are east of Texas. A tropical storm watch is in effect from the Florida Panhandle coast west to the Jefferson-Plaquemines Parish border in Louisiana. A storm surge watch is also posted from the mouth of the Mississippi River in southeast Louisiana to the Alabama-Florida border.
What do those watches mean?
A tropical storm watch means tropical-storm conditions are possible within 24 to 48 hours. That usually means sustained strong winds, gusty squalls and periods of heavy rain may arrive if the storm keeps moving as forecast.
A storm surge watch means water pushed ashore by the storm could rise high enough to flood low-lying coastal areas. Forecasters said 2 to 4 feet of water level rise is possible in the storm-surge watch area.
What kind of weather is possible?
Forecasts call for heavy rainfall, gusty winds and some coastal flooding along the northern Gulf Coast from Monday night through at least midweek. CNN reported that 2 to 4 inches of rain could fall widely, with up to 8 inches possible in stronger thunderstorms from the western Florida Panhandle through southern Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and possibly the Texas coast.
AccuWeather forecast a broader 1 to 4 inches of rain, with pockets of 4 to 8 inches and a worst-case local amount of 15 inches. It also said tropical-storm-force wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph could develop along the Interstate 10 corridor, with an isolated worst-case gust near 75 mph.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, “A ‘hug-the-coast’ scenario would keep overall winds weaker,” but “heavy to flooding rainfall would increase along the central Gulf Coast before spreading inland as the storm loses wind intensity.”
What should Texas readers watch for?
The main issue for Texas is uncertainty. If Bertha stays farther east, Texas may only see rough seas and occasional rain bands. If the system tracks farther west, the state could get heavier rain and stronger coastal impacts later in the week.
That is why the next forecast updates matter more than the name of the storm itself. The track will decide whether Texas ends up on the edge of Bertha’s rain shield or outside it altogether.
